Marine
Environmental Prediction
Projects are listed alphabetically by principal
investigator
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Garrett, Chris
University of Victoria
($258,339 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed January
2007)
Project Title: Analysis and parameterization of wave
breaking at sea
Wave breaking, evidenced by whitecaps, is intimately
involved in a large number of air-sea interaction processes of fundamental
scientific, technological and operational importance. Wave breaking ultimately
limits the wave growth, and plays a key role in exchanging energy, heat and
gases between the atmosphere and the ocean and in mixing the upper ocean. This
project aimed to link the probability and scales of wave breaking to the
underlying wave field. Analysis of an existing data set and interpretation of
the results, guided by complementary modelling studies of the evolution of the
wave field, had wide applications to marine weather forecasts, climate studies,
assessment of oil spills, and wave forecasts.
_____________________
Greatbatch, Richard
Dalhousie University
($206,000 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed September
2004)
Project Title: Development of a coupled
atmosphere-ocean modelling system with application to the extratropical
transition of Atlantic hurricanes
Several Atlantic hurricanes affect eastern Canada during
the course of a year. They are associated with heavy rainfall, high winds and
storm surges along the coast. Storms that undergo extratropical transition
rapidly re-intensify as they move northward. This research improved the
prediction of extratropical transitions and their environmental impacts and
thereby helped with planning mitigation measures to lessen damage. The project
produced a coupled atmosphere/ocean modelling system for use as part of a marine
environmental prediction system. The system helped in studying the extratropical
transition of Atlantic hurricanes.
_____________________
Gyakum, John
McGill University
($213,000 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)
Project Title: Diagnostic analyses of water vapour, and
its dynamical impact on extratropical transitions affecting eastern Canada
Hurricanes represent one of the most destructive weather
systems in the world. They affect Canada as they travel northward, becoming
known as extratropical transitions (ET). An ET may first weaken and may then
re-intensify, bringing high winds, torrential rain and flooding to coastal
regions of the Atlantic provinces or even inland. To improve forecasts, the
physical mechanisms of ET must be understood. The project involved diagnostic
studies and sensitivity experiments to determine the parameters that influence
hurricane intensity and transition. The research focused on water vapour, the
crucial energy source for these dangerous systems, and how it affects the
structure and dynamics of the ET. It also included analysis of conventional and
field data and modelling of the ET.
_____________________
Hillaire-Marcel, Claude
Université du Québec à
Montréal
($417,000 over 3 years, awarded
2001, completed July 2005)
Project Title: An oscillatory Arctic Sea ice cover: the
millennial year scale factor controlling the rates of intermediate versus deep
North Atlantic water formation
Experiments predict a collapse in the formation of
intermediate/deep water in the Labrador Sea in the near future due to climate
warming. The formation of Labrador Sea water is a major pump, driving global
oceanic circulation: if it were to collapse, this would have major impacts on
the climate system. The project was undertaken to help verify the hypothesis
that the formation rate of these waters in the Labrador Sea is linked to sea ice
conditions in the Arctic Ocean and to the routing of outflowing fresh waters
into the North Atlantic. Geological archives were used to study the 1500-year
oscillation of the ocean-climate system in the North, and to determine natural
climate trends. Hydrographic conditions were reconstructed for past warm periods
in the North, during which the formation of Labrador Sea water was inoperative
or reduced. These reconstructions are important tools for validating ocean
models.
_____________________
Hsieh, William
University of British Columbia
($227,500 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed May 2005)
Project Title: Equatorial coupled models
The equatorial Pacific plays a major role in global
climate, thanks to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. While
Canada is separated by distance from the equatorial Pacific, the strongest
signal in Canadian winter climate anomalies is still the ENSO signal, which
influences air temperature and precipitation in Canada as well as prairie wheat
yield and the survival and migration of salmon. This project developed
dynamical, hybrid coupled models with sophisticated data assimilation for the
equatorial Pacific. The better seasonal forecasts that result will permit
two-tier forecasting of the Canadian seasonal climate by the Canadian
Meteorological Centre and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis. Modellers at the Institute for Ocean Sciences could also improve
climate modelling and prediction of the extra-tropical Pacific Ocean.
_____________________
Karsten, Richard
Acadia University
($164,750 over 3 years, awarded 2003)
Project Title: Analysis of Argo float data to examine
Antarctic Intermediate Water formation
Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is the largest body of
low salinity waters found at depths of 1,000-2,000 metres over the majority of the
global oceans. This water is isolated from contact with the atmosphere; its
relatively constant temperature, salt content, and concentration of dissolved
gases contribute to its function as a sink for carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases (GHG). Findings show that AAIW intermediate waters are warming,
freshening and becoming shallow, caution of a possible disastrous outgassing of
previous sequestered GHGs. This research explores the formation process of AAIW
by examining the data from a set of six Argo floats deployed off the coast of
Chile in December 2002. The results substantially affected predictions of the
role of AAIW in climate change.
_____________________
Kelley, Dan
Dalhousie University
Project Title: Internal waves in an estuarine
environment: from generation to mixing
($ 285,000 over 3 years, awarded 2006)
Below the sea surface, waves may ride along the interface between dense lower
waters and more buoyant upper waters. These so-called internal waves may cause
ocean mixing, which in turn has a significant influence on circulation,
pollutant dispersal and ecosystem dynamics. Unfortunately, the mixing cannot be
simulated adequately in numerical models, which is a problem for the development
of marine policy based on such models. The first step towards including
internal-wave mixing in models is to build an understanding of the dynamics of
the process. This project does that by studying internal wave generation,
propagation and destruction at test sites in the St. Lawrence Estuary and in the
Saguenay Fjord. The goal is to enhance the reliability of marine environmental
prediction for the area.
_____________________
Kelley, Dan
Dalhousie University
($155,500 over 3 years, awarded 2002, completed April
2006)
Project Title: Ocean mixing: internal waves near steep
topography
Internal wave systems are important because they provide a
vertical transport mechanism in the ocean for both heat and nutrient fluxes
within regional and global ecosystems. This research looked at internal wave
mixing near a region of steep oceanic topography.
_____________________
Lamb, Kevin
University of Waterloo
($208,900 over 3 years, awarded 2005, completed December 2008)
Project Title: Parameterization of internal solitary wave mixing in the
coastal ocean for use in hydrostatic numerical models
Dr. Lamb's research focused on the role of waves in the complex mixing of
coastal waters. High-frequency, solitary-like waves are an important yet poorly
understood player in the transportation and dispersion of ocean nutrients and
contaminants. The strong currents caused by these waves affect offshore
structures and ocean acoustics. Dr. Lamb developed parameterizations of the
effects of internal solitary-like waves for use in hydrostatic models. This
improved predictions of wave impact on coastal marine environments.
_____________________
Patterson, Tim
Carleton University
($598,800 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)
Project Title: High resolution Holocene paleoclimatic
and paleoceanographic records from anoxic basins along the British Columbia
coast
Earth’s climate is highly variable and this natural
variability must be understood if reliable predictions of future climates are to
be made. The project identified past changes in atmospheric and ocean conditions
and their timing over the last 2,000 years. A combination of oceanographic,
sedimentological, geochemical and micropaleontological methods were used to
identify and correlate long- and short-term climate cycles. The results helped
policy makers recognize and adapt to changes due to human activity and show how
changes along the BC coast have affected the productivity and distribution of
fish stocks. A better understanding of natural climate cycles will help the
commercial fishing industry to respond more strategically to natural variations
in fish stocks.
_____________________
Ruddick, Barry
Dalhousie University
($118,929 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)
Project Title: Observational testing and comparison of
turbulence closures on the Scotian Shelf
Weather forecasts for coastal regions can sometimes be
wrong because the computer forecast models use incorrect models of ocean
turbulence and mixing. The researchers worked with colleagues at the Bedford
Institute of Oceanography to make observations of upper-ocean mixing in a key
location and used the results to test computer algorithms. This helped determine
which algorithms work best in the Scotian Shelf region. The knowledge helped
forecasters.
_____________________
Sheng, Jinyu
Dalhousie University
($116,500 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed October
2005)
Project Title: A relocatable nested shelf circulation
model with application to the eastern Canadian Shelf
Growing commercial activity along the eastern seaboard is
increasing demand for detailed information on circulation and variability on the
Scotian Shelf, especially that associated with extreme storm events. The project
developed an ocean shelf circulation model to study general circulation and
seasonal variability on the Shelf and to determine extreme currents resulting
from storms (e.g. around Sable Island). The results helped assess environmental
impacts on the Atlantic fishery, offshore oil and gas companies, the Canadian
Coast Guard and others involved in marine activities.
_____________________
Stacey, Michael
Royal Military College of Canada
($290,500 over 3 years, awarded 2002, completed October
2006)
Project Title: Assimilation of Argo floats in the
northeast Pacific Ocean
Argo floats provide oceanographers with
a unique set of observations that can be added to land or sea observations to
give vastly improved forecasts. Canada has Argo floats in the Atlantic Ocean and
the Pacific Ocean as well as further afield. Project scientists in this
initiative assessed Pacific Ocean float data in partnership with researchers at
the Institute of Ocean Sciences in Sidney, British Columbia.
_____________________
Thompson, Keith
Dalhousie University
($224,000 over 3 years, awarded 2002, completed September
2006)
Project Title: Assimilation of upper ocean data into a
model of the North Atlantic
Canada participates in the international Argo program,
which involves floats that drift with ocean currents throughout the world’s
oceans. Every 10 days, these floats transmit information via satellite on ocean
currents, temperature, and salinity. This research project involved the
assimilation and analysis of large quantities of hydrographic data from the
floats. The information allowed the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean
computer model for predicting and forecasting conditions in the North Atlantic.
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